communications director karen finney, assistant managing editor of "fortune" lee gallagher, and msnbc contributor jonathan capert of the washington post. it's the fist day of school for the new congress. >> i've got my lunch packed up, my boots tied tight. i hope i don't get in a fight. oh, back to school. >> and this is a live look at capitol hill where the house and senate will gavel in their first session of the 113th class moments from now. fights, however, for that awesome song are likely imminent beginning with the house's election of its speaker later this hour. the office of current speaker john boehner says they expect him to be re-elected, but if enough republicans break ranks, it could make the process messy. here's how it works. boehner will need a majority of the house votes cast today to hold his spot. if he fails to get a majority on the first vote, it will go to a second ballot.

something that has only happened once in the past century. in 1923 when nine ballots over three days were needed to appoint congressman frederick gillette. now, 433 members are expected to vote today in the house, meaning boehner's magic number is 217. given that 200 democrats who also have votes, 17 republicans would need to defect in order to force that second ballot. now, while boehner would likely capture enough votes in subsequent ballots, it would be a humiliating way for republicans to begin the new session. what about this new class? will they turnover a new leaf? could this be a fresh start for washington? "new york times" columnist gail kol linz puts america's hopes in perspective writing "the bar is low. since some people believe the departing 112th congress was the worst in history because of its stupendous lack of productivity and a favorability rating that once polled lower than the idea of a communist takeover of america." already congress has signed up for a heavy course load, but the

last congress punted on the debt ceiling and automatic spending cuts. in march they'll need to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government and carry it over from 2012 they'll have immigration reform and gun control. now, the 112th congress was the least productive class in decades enacting just 218 laws in two years. that's less than two-thirds of the laws passed in the previous congress. the gridlock will likely continue, but if the 113th can find common ground on a few big pieces of legislation, it could earn a passing grade. so this is a live shot of the house and senate, and while we are looking at what's going on, they're going to start gavelling it in. i do want to allow our panel to weigh in on this worst congress ever whether we think that the 113th could possibly be any worse than the current one. i'm going right to karen. karen is laughing the hard errs, first of all, and second of all -- >> you know, you have to respect john boehner. he doesn't seem to care, right? it's been called the worst congress for months and months

and months. he seems impervious to all of the criticism. he just keeps doing his thing. he has no problems saying, yeah, i got ow that sandy vote and then psych, right? he seems like he is fine. my only hope, i will say, is that with more democrats and more women who may have a better session of congress, but with these republican men in charge, we can't promise anything. >> it's not something -- well, nick, i mean, look, the bottom line is that as weak as boehner is, he has actually managed -- he did manage to get the fiscal cliff thing done, right? he has leaped through the sandy thing. is there any hope that with the new class coming in that he could be more effective as speaker? >> it's possible that once having tamped down a rebell wron in the last few weeks he could have a more stable role now. what he showed his members was that a much worse deal for them and their principles awaited on the far side of the fiscal cliff, and that was why he was able to tamp down the rebellion in his ranks and pass that bill eventually. i think actually, you know, to call them the most unpredictive and the worst or whatever, you

know, a lot of these guys came to washington to stop things from happening, so in a certain sense, it's a win for a conservative congressman who doesn't want the government to do more things. it's kind of a win for them. plus, we have a split government in congress, and that always leads to a certain amount of gridlock. it isn't just split government. it's split government in the era of hyper polarization when the two parties have never been more far apart from each other and more polarized. >> right. i want to play you something that chuck schumer in the senate said on rachel maddow talking about boehner. let's just play what schumer had to say about our friend john boehner. >> i don't think it's the person who is there. boehner, by all reports, is more moderate than just about anyone else in that leadership, more moderate than cantor, more moderate than mccarthy, more moderate than paul ryan. any one of them right now is sort of almost a slave to this

group of hard right people, and when you talk to those -- that group, not only are they totally out of the mainstream, they don't listen. >> and, lee, isn't that the problem? >> that's exactly the problem. i would agree with what the senator said there. i mean, you know, i don't know that boehner necessarily tamped down a rebellion because you have this increasing rift between the party. you have the old guard, the sort of country club republicans versus the young guns, and that is, if anything, only going to intensify. no matter how much more diverse the congress is right now. >> we're going to talk about those junk guns in a second. i want remind people that at the top of the screen there you see the house being gavelled into order at the senate. you see the senate and joe biden, president of the senate, presiding over the proceedings there. we're going to keep watching that throughout the hour, and as actual votes start to take place, we'll take a look. i want to go over to jonathan and just talk about these young guns for a second. there are a couple of them who are particularly toxic to john boehner, and those are, of course, eric cantor, who is supposedly his deputy, and the supposed vote counter, the whip,

kevin mccarthy, both of whom voted against john boehner's big compromise, and just really quick just to read you what one person has said about these guys, and this would be eric harrison, who is himself a conservative. this is aircraft aircraftson's take on cantor homeland mccarthy, and he says look for further than eric cantor and kevin mccarthy voting no on the plan. they should not be commended for voting no. this is a sign of disarray. for those who think the gop will get its act together come the debt ceiling fight, all signs point to fractures still at the top of the house with cantor and mccarthy working at cross purposes to the speaker. is disloyalty the biggest problem? >> eric erickson is exactly right. during a meeting that newly minted at the time house minority leader nancy pelosi had in about march of -- >> hold on one second. i'll have you hold that thought. tammy baldwin is being sworn in right now. she is the democratic senator from wisconsin. she is the senate-elect, and she's actually the first openly gay woman elected to the senate,

and she was also the first woman elected to represent wisconsin in the senate. she's being sworn in right now. all right. finish it up. >> fantastic moment. historic moment. go, tammy. what i was saying, so in march of 2011 i asked then minority leader pelosi if she thought boehner had the votes to raise the debt ceiling then. this is after she spent the entire time talking about how -- what a great vote getter she was and all this stuff. she goes, oh, i don't know, jonathan, you have to ask the speaker that. you have to ask the speaker that, but i'll tell you this. i never lost a vote. nancy pelosi who had as her majority leader steady hoyer, someone who she didn't want hoyer, she wanted congressman myrtha. that was her guy. she had a majority leader who was not technically her friend, in the same way that boehner technically does not have a friend in eric cantor, and, yet, she was able to get things

through the house of representatives that everyone thought were impossible. john boehner, from the moment he became speaker has never been able to get anything through the house without it failing, without it failing before it could fail or without it being some slippery sloppy mess as we saw at the fiscal cliff. >> or without independennancy p. consider just in terms of leadership style. pelosi had as diverse a caucus as john boehner has had to deal with, and, yet, as speaker, she was very productive, got things done, and as the minority leader she's been productive and got things done, and been the one person that you could count on to get it passed. i mean, that's the irony of this is that john boehner actually needs nancy pelosi more than he can count on eric cantor. >> isn't part of the problem that when nancy pelosi was speaker, she didn't have her deputies looking to maybe replace her, and i want to read this piece and come to you on this. in "the guardian" there was a fascinating piece about the relationship between cantor and boehner, and they made this point. cantor could be playing the long

game, and this is what jim wrote in "the guardian." cantor doesn't have to vie for the top job now. more than four years passed between when newt gingrich led the revolt against the 1990 tax increase and when he took over the leadership from bob mitchell who dutyfully supported his president in raising taxes. so can't cantor just say to the tea party members, i'm juror friend, i'm going to back you guys on all these issues, and just wait for boehner to fall apart? >> absolutely. i mean, the internal politics of the caucus, right, are totally different than the external politics of an election or the campaign. it's not the american voters who elect these guys. it's a majority of the caucus. so he has to play to those people for the long-term, and he can. i believe speaker boehner may even have been one of the ground troops in the coo for gingrich back in the day. i can't remember. it's amazing history kind of repeats itself. >> right. we are going to take a break and go right back to what's happening in the senate. this is the swearing in for senator-elect republican ted cruise of texas. is he now being sworn in on the

senate floor. he is coming up in a minute, actually, and he is considered a tea party darling when he gets into his place there. he actually won the seat vacated by retiring senator kay bailey hutchison of texas. his father is a cuban immigrant. he will be the next one. he is an important van garde in what republicans hope will be improving relations between their party and hispanics. i mean, the irony, of course, being that he is of cuban-american descent. he doesn't solve the problem with majorities, but he would be the next person to be sworn in. after him will be senate-elect democrat joe donnelley of indiana. he is also about to be sworn into the senate on the floor. donnelley defeated richard murdock for the seat after murdock defeated long-time senator richard luger in the republican primary. i do believe we are teeing up ted cruz. all right. they are coming in. all right. so we are going to have more of this when we come back. nbc news.com will have a live stream of today's speaker vote.

you can log on to nbcnews.com for all the latest from the house floor, and after the break, a dereliction of duty. a personal betrayal. those are just some of the quotes from republicans about speaker boehner's decision to delay a vote for sandy relief funding. we'll look at boehner stumble and the politics of disaster aid next on "now." ix. when the doctor told me that i could smoke for the first week... i'm like...yeah, ok... little did i know that one week later i wasn't smoking. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these stop taking chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of depression or other mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these stop taking chantix and see your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. if you have a history of heart or blood vessel problems,

tell your doctor if you have new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack. use caution when driving or operating machinery. common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. it helps to have people around you... they say, you're much bigger than this. and you are. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor if chantix is right for you.

faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which you are about to enter, so help you god? the group: i do. the vice president: congratulations, senators. and we're watching as senate-elect republican jeff lake of arizona is now being sworn in on the senate floor. flake won the seat vacated by retiring senator john kyl. turning now to the politics of sandy. the drudge headline was "palace intrigue." a phrase given life wednesday by new jersey governor chrissisty who lashed out at house republican leadership and

speaker john boehner in particular for having failed to pass a $60 billion hurricane sandy relief bill. >> our people were played last night as a pawn, and that's why people hate washington d.c. that's why they hate this politics. last night it was my party responsible. both parties can take plenty of responsibility over time, but last night my party was responsible for this. >> when it comes to the politics of sandy, christie is certainly playing his part. just one of many characters in the sandy land drama. the tell it like it is governor will eat his own if he has to to get new jersey their aid. is he mad at the embattled leader holding the purse strings, who is being undermined by his unreliable lieutenant. also in the picture, new york congressman peter king who finally helped boehner tame the growing mutany in the house hours after giving him a very public dressing down. in the background? president obama who has been calling christie and is only too

happy to watch the house republicans self-inflicted wounds from afar. a tangled web of alliances and motives with christie adding to the intrigue by playing boehner against his double-crossing deputy. >> i spoke to joert leader cantor earlier today. i have to tell you that i think that eric was working as hard as he could to get this done for us. >> and as fearful as i am of ever interrupting chris christie, i want to let you know that tim cain will be sworn in on the floor, and we will take a look at that, and i believe it is happening even as we speak. senator-elect democrat tim cain of virginia. he was the governor of virginia from 2006 to 2010, and he is also former head of the dnc, and after the virginia tech shooting, then governor cain proposed and signed new reform forces more funding for the state's mental health system. that is tim kaine. will he we will go back to the panel and talk more about chris christie and his backing of cantor, which forced a panicked boehner to run to his number two

and put out a hurried joint statement announcing an immediate friday vote on the first $9 billion worth of sandy aid with more to come. now, as for christie, it's the second time he has held court in a sandy drama. following his public embrace of president obama in the waning days of the presidential campaign. as for the president? he is observing the old political rule. when the other side is destroying itself, stand back and stay out of the way. far away. like in hawaii. so this is -- there's a lot about going on here today, and i appreciate you being patient with it. now, on the christi drama, there should be a political rule if there isn't one already. never fight with the most popular member of your party when your party is extremely unpopular. >> or a different rule, which is you'll never lose money attacking the least popular person in your party if you are the most popular person in your party. it's hurricane politics, right? christie will run for president in 2016. he wants to establish right now that he is not just a washington republican, and what better way

than going after the house, which is not very popular in a kind of dramatic fashion in a very christie-like fashion. >> he is going after them on something that should be a no-brainer, right? sandy aid should not be partisan. >> think about the politics and how this played out. boehner is so stupid in saying in a he wouldn't do this, that he -- i mean, look how quickly he had to turn around and say, okay, yeah, yeah, friday, we'll do it, we'll do it. the capital that he lost and the -- i mean, i don't know if he could lose anymore -- on something that was unnecessary, i think that adds to this narrative that it is in disarray, that he is not a good leader, and, you know, our colleague joe scarborough made a point this morning. these are the kinds of seeds of disaster for the republican party for the midterm election because, you know, it's not just chris christie, it can be democrats who can run against the disarray in congress and not being able to get anything done, all the intrigue and infighting. it's sfun sport for us, but it makes for a good narrative for a wave election. >> go ahead.

>> well, listen to say chris christie yesterday took me back to 2007 when i was sitting in the office of then louisiana governor cathleen babino blanco who spent the previous three and a half years doing battle with a republican white house, republican senate, republican house -- senate, house, white house, trying to get aid for new orleans, for louisiana, and she said to me, quote, "there is a void, a void, of human compassion of the people in washington." they act as if, you know, we deserve to be hit by the hurricane and hurt by -- hit by the storm surge that swamped new orleans. so that was 2007. you're looking at what's happening now with christie. republican governor, democrat in the white house, democrats controlling the senate, republicans controlling the house. it's the folks in the house who are doing -- who are doll him wrong. the whole thing is absolutely fascinating. sfwloog if nothing else, there is one big rule here. it's like you do not not call chris christie back four times.

>> he'll talk about it. >> it's like he went right to the pulpit. that is exactly -- we know that this is -- that's why it's just -- yes, it's a big bill. yes, everybody has been so busy. so busy. yes, it's leyden with pork, as many people have said. you know, you don't -- this was just such a moment that was missed, even acknowledged, to even express some compassion, to express some human, you know -- >> if you want to be even more crass, isn't there also the fact that in the case of cathleen babbino blanko, they aren't raising that much money from -- new york and new jersey, first of all, they're donor states in terms of tax money. when it comes to actual political donations, new york gave $378 million in the 2012 campaign. new jersey gave $98 million in the 2012 campaign. boehner himself received $1.6 million from new yorkers. eric cantor received even more.

$1.8 million. aside from the fact that they're not showing human compassion, they're not showing much political savvy. >> in addition to new york and new jersey being atm's. it's also the number one media market in the country. so -- >> exactly. >> you picked the wrong fight with the wrong guy. a guy who has no problem speaking his mind, a guy from a state that has given you a lot of money, and a guy like that can get not just the new york media market, but philadelphia's media market. this is at the drop of a hat he can get the media -- >> guys, guys, if the "new york times" and the new york post and the daily news, write mean editorials about john boehner, is not going to cost him a single vote in the caucus election today. >> well, they already saw it's probably not going to cost him peter king's vote. even pete king is full of air and not much else. >> this is a national story as well. funding went more quickly to hurricane ike.

you know, it's -- there's still some people really suffering. >> it help to be a swing state if you are hit by a hurricane. >> when the job lynn, missouri, tornadoes hit, he was at that point saying that in order to do sandy aid, he had to pay for it. now he is suddenly on the other side saying that we can go ahead and do the same and kind of making deals behind boehner's back, which, you know, back to what we're watching here today, john boehner is going into this with a guy who is willing to make deals when he isn't in the room. how can he then trust cantor on anything if he can't trust him on this? >> timing in washington, the sort of dirty little secret is i've heard from reporters who worked on the hill that they get more -- pitched more bad stories about boehner from cantor's office than they do from democrats. i mean, when that is what you have to work with and that's supposed to be your guy on your side, i mean, you have a real problem. >> okay. i want -- i'm going to interrupt you guys for just one moment because we have yet another important swearing in coming up. senate-elect republican tim scott of south carolina, he is now being sworn in on the senate floor. scott was appointed by south

carolina governor nikki haley to take the seat left by tim demint. demint left to run the heritage foundation. scott is the first black republican senator. he will also be the lone african-american in the senate. scott will serve out the remainder of demint's term. we are watching as he takes his seat. historic, although i think for a lot of african-americans, karen, maybe not -- maybe some mixed emotions. >> mixed emotions. it will be interesting to see how senator scott sort of nav gates being the only african-american in the senate, the only republican african-american. i assume he will be far more graceful at it than our friend alan west was at anything. >> indeed. another piece of history being made here. at least if you are in massachusetts. people are, like, oh, it was historic for them and for those that care about the consumer protections that she ushered in. democrat elizabeth warren of massachusetts being sworn in on the senate floor. warren is a former harvard professor. elizabeth warren will sit on the

senate banking committee, which is responsible for the oversight and accountability of wall street. nick, we know that wall street is not amused by the fact that she's -- >> wall street would rather have kept her at the agency she founded or had her in the senate. i suspect there's going to be, you know, some chuckling about this in the consumer industry. >> i can imagine. they fought so hard against both obviously president obama on wall street, but also elizabeth warren. this is sort of their worst nightmare. she's also on the banking committee. >> it is. i mean, but, i mean, you know, wall street knows it's in for more regulation no matter what. i think that it's more of a matter of degree at this point. >> right. okay. >> the dirty secret, if you ask wall streeters about the regulation that is are being put in place, they will tell you actually it isn't that bad. it's not so bad. >> they will survive. we're going to take a break, but coming up secretary of state hillary clinton is now home from hospital, but there are still many questions about the state of her health. we will get a live report next.

secretary of state hillary clinton was released from the hospital last night following treatment for a blood clot that stemmed from a concussion she suffered last month. joining us now with more is nbc's chief science and health correspondent bob bazell. what do we know about the secretary of state's condition? is her discharge from the hospital a sign that her health is improving? >> well, in almost every case a discharge from a hospital is a sign that somebody's health is improving, especially if it was the case with mrs. clinton, she walked out unassisted, and she looked like she was in good shape. i think there's no reason to doubt her office's statements that she can expect a full recovery. >> all right. nbc's bob bazell, thank you very much. coming up, president obama hasn't even been sworn in for his second term yet, but that hasn't stopped speculation about 2016.

the first lady -- the first ballots may have already been cast in congress. we'll look at what the fiscal cliff vote tells us next on "now." sometimes what we suffer from is bigger than we think ... like the flu. with aches, fever and chills- the flu's a really big deal. so why treat it like it's a little cold? there's something that works differently than over-the-counter remedies. prescription tamiflu attacks the flu virus at its source. so don't wait. call your doctor right away. tamiflu is prescription medicine for treating the flu in adults and children one year and older whose flu symptoms started within the last two days. before taking tamiflu tell your doctor if you're pregnant, nursing. have serious health conditions, or take other medicines. if you develop an allergic reaction, a severe rash, or signs of unusual behavior, stop taking tamiflu and call your doctor immediately. children and adolescents in particular may be at an increased risk of seizures, confusion or abnormal behavior.

the most common side effects are mild to moderate nausea and vomiting. the flu comes on fast, so ask your doctor about tamiflu. prescription for flu.

i've always had to keep my eye on her... but, i didn't always watch out for myself. with so much noise about health care... i tuned it all out. with unitedhealthcare, i get information that matters... my individual health profile. not random statistics. they even reward me for addressing my health risks. so i'm doing fine...

but she's still going to give me a heart attack. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. the fight over the fiscal cliff and the recent intramural battalions over sandy relief have both been notable for one thing. exposing the 2016 calculations at work inside the gop. the first big vote of the 2016 presidential race was held tuesday. the fiscal cliff, wrote the washington post, in a nod to marco rubio voting no on the deal, while paul ryan in a surprise move to some voted yes. standing by house speaker john boehner. ryan explained his yes vote this way saying, "i came to congress to make tough decisions, not to run away from them." rubio, the rising florida senator, had a different view on the matter saying, i appreciate all the hard work that went into

avoiding the so-called fiscal cliff, nevertheless, i cannot support the arrangement they have arpg arrived at." it should also be noted that kentucky senator rahn paul who said he may run for president in the tradition of his father, also voted no. then, of course, you had a visibly angry chris christie yesterday who has no qualms about taking a few swipes at his own party when it benefits him politically. at a testy press conference, christie also reverted to tradition by chewing out a reporter, which was red meat for a base of republicans who might otherwise question his more moderate positions. all of which is to say the usual behind the scenes 2016 maneuvering is being put on stark display at the start of the 113th congress. so i have to go right over to the left-hand side of the table to you, jonathan. are we seeing the first shots, the firts salvo of the 2016 campaign playing out in how these guys voted? >> got love of god. we just got over 2012. >> never too early.

>> if i must engage in this conversation about 2016, the way i look at it, the rubio camp versus the ryan camp i look at it as the governing camp versus the political camp. paul ryan, we all know where he stands. we know all about his budget. it's not the nicest budget in the world. it's rather draconian. paul ryan, who is also very young and can run for president a few more cycles from now, is looking at the fact that the country could not bare to go over this cliff. you have to pass this deal in order to move on to the next battles ahead. marco rubio on the other hand, if he is going to run in 2016, voting no is very -- will work wonderfully with the republican primary electorate who doesn't want anything done whether it's raising taxes, funding sandy, anything. he could run for president among republican primary voters and say, you know, i voted against the fiscal cliff. >> i just want to point out that it was the washington post, i think, where you came from that gave us this idea because you

guys wrote about it first. >> that's the news. i'm on the opinion side. >> i want to drill more into this idea of ryan versus rubio. rubio obviously came in with the tea party, but then he kind of tried to be independent, but ryan really -- he is kind of always been an establishment guy. he voted for everything that george w. bush did that conservatives hate. >> yes, i and would argue this is political on his side. he is trying to be the team player. i think he has been one of the most interesting players. if you see one of the things he said was, well, elections have consequences. the only time we've really heard that from anyone really. there are many people that are not accepting the election, so -- >> that's true. >> so, you know, it's just -- i think that's really interesting. he is clearly trying to also can say that he helped save the economy. i mean, let's face it, that's -- if we did go over the cliff, it would have had terrible implications, and that would be have anyone's hands. >> we know he isn't a budget hawk. karen, i want to talk about rubio. i have been skeptical that rubio would run. i have always thought if jeb

bush ran, he wouldn't run. then we see things like this. there was this sort of deep profive file in the "new york times" on december 21st, and the title is football, and it's not political. marco rubio burnishing his credentials. this makes me think that maybe he is thinking about it. >> sure. to the point about these votes, if we learned nothing from this last election, we should have learned that it is about what is your narrative, right? these votes, they matter and they don't. they will matter to these guys as candidates if they are part of the narrative whether you are going to call yourself, you know, a budget hawk or you're going to say, i'm compassionate and care about people. whatever it is. they've got to be able to explain it in that context. with rubio, i think what we've seen it wasn't just that piece that you mentioned, but we've seen a couple other little seedlings out there that are testing the waters to kind of see what kind of reaction he can get, what kind of response he can get. i am sure that there's lots of polling going on every time he passes a vote here and there to kind of check his popularity and

approval rating, and that's the kind of stuff we're going to continue to see, obviously, over the course of the next couple of years is, you know, him trying to see, you know, testing those waters and seeing what kind of response committee get. >> it's a flash forward to sitting in "the times" newsroom on the night of the first presidential debate fact checking marco rubio and paul ryan about whether he voted raise tacks. my head is spinning. >> well, we want to take a look back because the house is starting to vote for speaker of the house where both john boehner and nancy pelosi have been nominated by their respective parties. this is sort of the big thing that we've been waiting for today is whether or not john boehner is going to have to face that second humiliating ballot. that is what we are taking a look at on the floor. we are going to keep our eyes on that. nick, i did want to go back to you while we are waiting for that to unfold. you know, looking broader at this potential primary, you've got chris christie. you've got rahn paul and paul

ryan, marco rubio. all people who are thought of as potential candidates. who do you think right now is positioned best not for the general election, but for the base, for the primaries? >> that's a great question. you know, back to what karen said, it really depends on where the country is. i know it's an unsatisfying answer to say that it matters. to me chris christie is a kind of a throwback to a giuliani candidacy in certain respects. he is a guy who is sort of brash attitude, his willingness to kind of take it to fight is very reassuring the conservatives, right, in the same way that, you know, when giuliani who loved taking it to democrats, and that was important to them enough to overlook the fact that on substance he was not that conservative. the difference is, actually, chris christie is quite conservative on substance and he is brash and also able to do these things doing right now to put himself above the fray, above politics of usual. that's very effective. it's pretty much the standard

playbook for any governor who is running for president. i see that as very effective. for the guys who are in congress right now, i don't know. if you are going to have two years of trench warfare over debt ceilings and spending where the republican party is basically fighting the battle against where the polls say the majority of americans rshg that's very ugly for those too. >> jonathan, is it ironic that you could see ran paul might have the heart of the movement because he is the most libertarian and sort of tea party. you have marco rubio, who serves their demographic needs. you have paul ryan who just ran and will have a lot of money coming from wisconsin, but who is going to be voted with the establishment. are we setting up just a replay of 2012 where you have a field where nobody satisfies all the needs? >> well, the replay only up to a point. all those people you mentioned maybe rahn paul, but all those people you mentioned are competent people. it will not be a clown car. it will be a messy process. >> you say that now.

>> then there are other people who sat out the race who might jump in as well. i think we could see in 2016 maybe a more serious conversation from the republican party during their primary process. >> all of them can raise money. >> right. very true. we haven't mentioned the wild card here, which is jeb bush. >> no, we haven't. it will be interesting to see how he tests the waters over the next couple of years and where he decides to weigh in. you know, i mean, here's the reality. everybody is doing better in the polls before they decide to announce, right? before it's official. i say that even about, you know, hillary clinton who i worked for, i love her dearly. i love the fact that she's finally getting i think most of the praise that she deserves, but the day she announces, all of that, you know, sort of nastyness that we've seen from the republicans, just as a little reminder we've seen it for the last couple of weeks about this, you know, questioning her health and whether or not she really faked a blood clot, which is so ridiculous, if you know this

woman, but, yeah, that's the other dynamic. we love all these guys while it's the hypothetical, but once they -- to what you were saying, once they become serious candidates, he is this and that and he is not that. >> we're in such a hyper-politicized environment more than ever, ever, ever before. i mean, it will be entertaining, that's for sure. >> we're still watching what's happening on the floor. i'm not sure if eric cantor has cast his vote. they're doing these roll calls in order. we're definitely going to pay attention to that. coming up, the new house and senate are in session. we are continuing. we'll have a live look at the householding its vote for speaker. we'll bring you more from capitol hill and and find out what it is that aik cantor did or didn't do just ahead. west of florida. brown of florida. pelosi. brown >> brown of florida. pelosi. brownly of california.

pelosi. ash my inner cowboy... instead i got heartburn. [ horse neighs ] hold up partner. prilosec isn't for fast relief. try alka-seltzer. kills heartburn fast. yeehaw!

collins of new york. boehner. conaway. boehner. connolly. >> boehner. connolly, pelosi, conyers. pelosi. cook. boehner. cooper. colin powell. costa. >> okay. that was a live look at the

113th congress, which is already setting up to be very interesting. we did have one vote for eric cantor. we've had cantor vote for john boehner. i believe we just had a vote for colin powell. that just goes to show you that the 113th is vying to be as whacky as the 1 129. we've had votes for nancy pelosi, and obviously most of the votes coming in for john boehner from republicans. coming back out to the panel, i mean, the thinking is, karen, that john boehner really isn't in actual jeopardy unless, of course, 20 republicans were to decide to do the colin powell/cantor gambet here. >> just the very fact -- think about this -- that john boehner went into today with stories sort of swirling around whether or not and questioning whether or not he would really stay the speaker of the house, watching the vote count, let's see how many more general powell gets. that's not -- that just doesn't start him off very well. particularly in a house that will have more democrats in it. he has the senate will have more

democrats in it, and so in terms of this divided government, i mean, he is going to have to work even harder to bring along the far right parts of his caucus to get deals done, and, again, i think nancy pelosi comes out of this as somebody he is going to have to work with, and i think he certainly is weakened going into this session of congress after this kind of a vote today. >> absolutely. >> this is actually the backlash of jerry mandering. they put millions of dollars all around the country into carving out these super, super safe districts for all these guys who were then elected by constituents who hate the government, hate government spending, rather, who want to cut it, who are uncompromising, and that's who they have to listen to, and that, ironically, is what is making it so hard for him now to cut these deals. >> they don't pay a price. they don't pay a price for being intransigent. they are rewarded in these deeply red districts for not going netting done. >> they feel like they have as much of a mandate as the white house. that's what's happening. those two mandates are cancelling each other out in a

way. no, it's absolutely true. even with the gavel, even if boehner prevails today, he is going to have a lot of tumult ahead of him. >> what is the risk to john boehner, if going forward as speaker he still has to cut deals only when he can get 170 democrats to vote for them? >> you feel for the poor man because he can't -- i mean, come on. i'm going to be human here. the poor guy, he has this majority of the majority tradition that's been around since hastert, and he knows if he doesn't pass bills with the majority of the republican majority and he does it with democratic votes, which would be the governing thing to do, then his speakership is at risk. >> but he just broke the hastert rule on the fiscal cliff. >> well, yes, because finally for once he just decided, hey, you guys, fine, i don't care what are you going to do, this is for the good of the nation. the other thing is you have

knees districts that are listening to their constituents in the far right, and then have you the more moderate folks who have to worry about getting a challenge from their right flank, which, you know, also tends to chill the atmosphere. >> right. as we're watching continuing the 113th congress they're doing their roll-call votes on the speaker of the house, and that is the big question. you have members who are worried about a tea party challenge from the right. >> sure. >> when you come to these ideas of brinksmanship that's to be so bad for the gop brand, it is bad for the brand, but peel feel they have to do it to keep their seats. >> other thing we're going to continue to see more of, which we saw in this last congress, unfortunately, is more of the sort of, you know, sort of throw-aways to the right ring wing, right? >> 40 votes to take away a woman's right to make decision bz her own body. i saw minority leader pelosi put out a statement that boehner has decide from day one they're going to make it clear they're going to continue taxpayer dollars to fight doma.

we're going to see more and more of that throwing a bone here and there to the right wing, and i think it's a way to balance out the fact that they're not -- he support going to be able to do things that they want him to do. >> i focused on the white house today who said, look, the white house's stance on what comes to raising the debt limit is that they're not even going to take calls from republicans. they're not going to talk to them at all? this is their stance. >> you cannot negotiate overpaying the past bills of the federal government? >> you wouldn't think. we did before. i mean -- >> you know, what happened in march -- i'm sorry -- in august of 2011 was the sort of educating moment for the president. i mean, everyone looked into the

abyss, and folks in the white house after they got through that, the sentiment was once we've survived that, we can survive anything, and we're not going through that again, so when you hear the president saying i am not going down that road, i am not doing it, you better damn well believe he is not going to do it. you know, those folks -- those of you who think the president is going to back down, he is not going to. >> memo to -- we are continuing to monitor the speaker vote on the house floor, and hopefully we'll have a result for you after the break. stay with us. >> gibson. boehner. gingry of georgia. boehner. gomert.

alan west of florida. ve days la, i had a massive heart attack. bayer aspirin was the first thing the emts gave me. now, i'm on a bayer aspirin regimen. [ male announcer ] be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. [ woman ] learn from my story.

[ male announcer ] why do more emergency workers everywhere trust duracell...?? duralock power preserve. locks in power for up to 10 years in storage. now...guaranteed. duracell with duralock.

holt. pelosi. honda. pelosi. >> pelosi. hoyer. pelosi. >> and you are watching the live floor vote for the speaker of the house. that was steady hoyer, the chief deputy of nancy pelosi, in a colorful way putting her name into nomination. i want to note that texas congressman gomert, republican, he decided his choice was alan

west, congressman alan west, the just defeated tea party congressman from florida who gets his name put in as speak ever of the house of representatives. what beats that? top that. essentially, i mean, what are we looking at here? dysfunctional house? functional house? >> that's right. it's amazing. they have gotten rid of almost all the -- all the tools to make the house function. you know, pork is a lubricator of the sausage factory. always has been. now everyone hates pork, and it makes it harder for the speaker to squeak by votes. that's the way it's always been done. >> earmarks are going to have to be our out-cue here. i want to thank everyone on the panel. nicolas, karen, leigh, and jonathan. alex wagner returns to this very chair tomorrow at noon eastern, 9:00 a.m. pacific. she'll be joined by meagan mccartel, ben smith, and melissa harris-perry, and until then you can find us at facebook.com/now with alex. andrea mitchell reports is next, and she'll have the results from

the vote for speaker of the house as well as an interview with senator chuck schumer.

stop! stop! stop! come back here! humans -- we are beautifully imperfect creatures living in an imperfect world. that's why liberty mutual insurance has your back with great ideas like our optional better car replacement. if your car is totaled, we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. call... and ask one of our insurance experts about it today. hello?! we believe our customers do their best out there in the world, and we do everything we can to be there for them when they need us. [car alarm blaring] call now and also ask about our 24/7 support and service. call... and lock in your rate for 12 months today.